Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table and Modelling Consensus Table as of December 21, 2020.
• Cases continue to grow and overall case levels are twice the “red” level. Percent positivity is flattening. Our ability to control case growth is still precarious.
• Continuing case growth will increase outbreaks in long-term care homes and other congregate settings.
• Under all scenarios, ICU occupancy will be above 300 beds within 10 days. Worst case scenarios show occupancy above 1,500 beds by mid-January.
• Based on experience in France and Australia, “hard lock-downs” of 4–6 weeks can reduce case numbers in Ontario to less than 1,000 per day and possibly much lower with increased testing and support.
• With lower case numbers we can maintain safe ICU care for COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients who require it.
• As noted in previous briefings, public health restrictions will require more resources(e.g. testing, isolation/quarantine support) in communities and essential service workplaces where exposure is higher.
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